Weekly market overview

As we approach the end of the month and the monthly candle close, I like to review the market regimes that we currently find ourselves in across the different asset classes. 

This is something I do every week so that I have a "tone" for where we've been and what to be paying attention to going forward. 

When I have a market regime figured out for that particular market then I can determine if any of my strategies have good enough edge to trade, or simply stay away. 

If you find this valuable to your trading please do forward this email on or share it with others. The more people we can help from taking the wrong type of positions in the wrong market regimes, maybe we can save some friends a lot of money and heartache. 

If you got forwarded this email and want more, do sign up for FREE here.

On to the regimes!

• Symbol: EURUSD
• Volatility: Low to rising
• Direction: Bullish
• Bull quiet market regime on rising volatility with a price breakout above the 2019/2020 highs. This is a long only regime, buy pullbacks and buy breakouts to the upside, add to long positions as price continues moving in your favor especially on daily time frames. Avoid taking short positions. 

• Symbol: GBPUSD
• Volatility: declining
• Direction: sideways
• Neutral quiet market regime favors mean reversion trades, buy dips and sell rips. the FVBO strategy works well in this regime. Keep in mind that as EURUSD starts to breakout this will have effects across FX. This very low volatility sideways action that we've been experiencing will eventually break and large moves erupt from low volatility regimes. 
  
• Symbol: AUDUSD/NZDUSD (same charts)
• Volatility: low
• Direction: gently rising/quiet trend
• Bull quiet market regime with sideways volatility drifting lower suggest long only and follow the trend higher. No reason to be taking shorts here. A breakout last week wasn't met with much selling pressure, be long. 

• Symbol: USDJPY
• Volatility: Rising/neutral
• Direction: neutral
• The Yen, like Sterling, has spent the most time going sideways and after extremely compressed volatility for the month of July on Friday, made it's first move outside of the bands. Pairing the Yen against any pairs that are bullish, such as EUR/JPY trade (which we are in) look to be a good setup. As setups present themself this week, look to the Yen as the pairing currency. 

• Symbol: CHFUSD
• Volality: Low to sideways 
• Direction: Bullish
• Swiss Franc has reached its 2018/2019 highs (remember EURUSD has broken above those highs already). The trend has been rather bullish and as we arrive at this inflection point 2019 highs, 2018 highs where the price has been rejected, rally after rally since removing the $1.20 EURCHF floor back in 2015. In other words (looking at this chart) this level has proven to be particularly strong. 

• Symbol: CADUSD
• Volatility: declining - low
• Direction: Sideways
• The neutral market regime for CAD is among the most profitable of all FX pairs when trading the FVBO strategy. Until this trend changes, and it's been happening for about six years now, play the FVBO strategy or variants.
  

On to Equities

• Symbol: Nasdaq
• Volatility: low to sideways
• Direction: Up
• Until something changes, I'm buying dips STILL. Currently we have a beautiful double top pattern on the daily, and as always if that pattern fails, it will tell us that bulls continue to remain in control. This has been the same story since we started buying in April and have added 15 times to this position since!!! I will be looking to add to my $QQQ long term position on this one this week if things shape up that way. 
  

A new strategy that I am running is a trend following strategy, here's a screenshot of NQ. You'll noticed that the trend is really strong here and just barely moved into bull quiet territory. A move above Friday's high will trigger a long entry. Remember I'm managing this trade with a lot of profit already in this one, so my perspective might be different than if you were just thinking of getting in here. If we don't move back to new highs I will consider downside insurance by way of buying puts just in case. This is an inexpensive (relatively) way to stay in this position from a great entry price. 

 

• Symbol: GC
• Volatility: low to rising
• Direction: Up
• Gold is in a bull quiet, buy dips, buy rips, buy because the last letter of the day of week ends in Y, just be long
  
   
  
  
  
  
  
  
• Symbol: BTCUSD
• Volatility: low
• Direction: sideways
• BTCUSD is currently making another attempt to overcome 10k opening the door to 15k from here. A typical move when 10k is in play is a 6500 point range, up or down. In bull quiet, that implies we move higher, and there is a lot of other interesting reasons why I believe 15k won't be the price it stops at when the next expansion phase happens. 
  

An update to the Pollinate Lab portfolio. These are the live trade signals in our private Slack channel. In addition to these live signals we are working together with other traders scouring markets, testing strategies, and helping each other in this other wise extremely lonely endeavor of trading. 

Come join us

Again, please do feel free to send these emails to your counterparts or friends, so that they stay on the right side of the markets.